Friday, July 29, 2011

Political Manipulation: Persuasion with Magic Numbers!

Do Numbers Lie?  

No, but the people giving you the numbers can.  In the West, we typically display blind loyalty to the almighty statistic.  A study shows that about 72 percent of people will trust a statement backed by statistics without asking any questions.

Now, I have no idea if there's been a study that actually backs that last statement up, but it demonstrates that when presented with a statistic from a trusted source of information that most people will take a pass on asking questions about how the survey or test was conducted or what information is actually presented.


A Practical Example of Presenting Information - U.S. Debt

Let's take a look at a bar graph from the NY Times and a "raw data" text sheet from Fox News.

This graph is very clear in its intentions.  It wants you to see that the policy changes under Bush cost much more than the policy changes under Obama, including projections if he gets reelected in 2012, so it's partly theoretical.

















Total increase in debt ceiling under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton: $3.15 trillion
Total increase in debt ceiling during President Obama's 28 months in office when it hit May 16th: $3.144 trillion
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Under President Ronald Reagan: 17 debt ceiling hikes from $935 billion to $2.8 trillion
Debt ceiling increased $1.865 trillion -- an average of $109.7 billion each hike.
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Under the first Bush administration: six debt ceiling hikes from $2.8 trillion to $4.145 trillion
Debt ceiling increased $1.345 trillion -- an average of $224.1 billion each hike.
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Under Clinton: four debt ceiling hikes from $4.145 trillion to $5.95 trillion
Debt ceiling increased $1.805 trillion -- an average of $451.25 billion each hike.
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Under the second Bush administration: seven debt ceiling hikes from $5.95 trillion to $11.315 trillion.
Debt ceiling increased $5.365 trillion -- an average of $766.4 billion each hike.
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Under Obama: three debt ceiling hikes from $11.315 trillion to $14.294 trillion
Debt ceiling increased $3.144 trillion -- $1.048 trillion each hike.


The "raw data" text is very clear in its intentions.  It wants you to see that the total debt ceiling hikes are always higher under recent Democratic Presidents on a per hike basis.  While none of the numbers are theoretical, they are presented in a way that paints the most negative light on democrats.


Manipulating Your Mind With Numbers

You can see how one presents information makes a huge difference as to how people feel about it.  I could use the same bar graph and say that Bush gave out tax cuts of $1.8 trillion, while Obama only gave tax cuts worth $425 billion.  Using the same "raw data", I could say that Bush Jr. raised the debt ceiling by a little over $5 trillion, while Obama has only raised it a little under $3 trillion.  When people present you with numbers, they are usually trying to persuade you of something.  There's an agenda.  Often, raw data isn't raw because it's been processed for you in some way.  In our case the numbers were manipulated to show you that Democrats raised the debt ceiling in larger increments per hike.

It's tough to find objectivity, even with numbers.  I think with politics it's best to just admit that we all have a bias and work towards understanding, compromise and cooperation for the best policy, rather than waste our energy trying to make the "other side" look bad.  It's one country with only two major parties.  The entire other half can't be all bad.

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